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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 69

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to MIA 21, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 22 for 1 yard (26-J.Shaw).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 27, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model