Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 16

(:29) 4-M.Darr punts 53 yards to CIN 15, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 27 for 12 yards (48-M.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.97 EP
48% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model