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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 25

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 2-M.Nugent 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.77 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model