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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 4

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(4:16) 2-M.Nugent 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 4, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP