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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 31

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 32-J.Hill left end to MIA 30 for 1 yard (56-D.Butler; 24-I.Abdul-Quddus).

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.04 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 31, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 41, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model