Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 82

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Miami Dolphins 7

(14:24) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIA 32, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 43 for 11 yards (46-C.Harris; 59-N.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 82, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model