Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 83

Indianapolis Colts 27 – Jacksonville Jaguars 30

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 34-J.Ferguson to IND 22 for 5 yards. Lateral to 80-C.Rogers to IND 22 for no gain (91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (91-Y.Ngakoue), recovered by IND-12-A.Luck at IND 19. 12-A.Luck to IND 18 for -1 yards. Lateral to 15-P.Dorsett to IND 14 for -4 yards (21-P.Amukamara).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP

What Happened

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth -0.01 EP
67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 83, worth -1.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP