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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 56

Jacksonville Jaguars 30 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(:38) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to IND 18, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +0.40 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 56, worth -1.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model