4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 49

Indianapolis Colts 27 – Jacksonville Jaguars 30

What Actually Happened

(1:42) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short middle to 83-D.Allen (29-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.78 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -1.60 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model