Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 78

Jacksonville Jaguars 30 – Indianapolis Colts 27

(2:41) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 78 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.95 EP
57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 78, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model