Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 23 – Indianapolis Colts 13

(12:50) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 58 yards to IND 8, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-Q.Bray to IND 22 for 14 yards (25-P.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.07 EP
62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model