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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 31

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(2:55) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.43 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model