Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(9:51) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 54 yards to JAX 21, Center-45-M.Overton. 13-R.Greene to JAX 29 for 8 yards (26-C.Geathers). PENALTY on JAX-29-J.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 21.

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.95 EP
72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model