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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 28

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(11:55) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.59 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 28, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model