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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 3-B.Nortman punts 45 yards to IND 25, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.56 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 28, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model