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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 46

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(1:13) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.14 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model