4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:41) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 49 yards to JAX 18, Center-45-M.Overton. 13-R.Greene ran ob at JAX 30 for 12 yards (28-J.Todman).

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 25, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP