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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 59

Denver Broncos 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:57) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to TB 5, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 11-A.Humphries to TB 16 for 11 yards (32-A.Janovich).

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.72 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model