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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 47

Denver Broncos 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:14) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to TB 7, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-36-K.Webster.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.02 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP