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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 6

Denver Broncos 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:07) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model