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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 20

Denver Broncos 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(:09) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.70 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model