Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 19 at the 74

Denver Broncos 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

(14:10) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to TB 17, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 11-A.Humphries pushed ob at TB 28 for 11 yards (87-J.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.79 EP
74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model