Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 64

Washington Commanders 17 – Cleveland Browns 20

(5:59) 5-T.Way punts 59 yards to CLE 5, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 29-D.Johnson to CLE 23 for 18 yards (30-D.Bruton; 47-Q.Dunbar).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.65 EP
66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 64, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model