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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 17 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 3-C.Parkey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.79 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 37, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model