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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 33

Cleveland Browns 14 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(:05) 3-C.Parkey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.51 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -0.20 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model