Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 75

Atlanta Falcons 41 – Carolina Panthers 33

(1:37) 5-M.Bosher punts 59 yards to CAR 16, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-T.Ginn ran ob at CAR 24 for 8 yards (53-L.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.42 EP
65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 75, worth -3.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model