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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 16

Carolina Panthers 26 – Atlanta Falcons 41

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short right to 10-C.Brown for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.31 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 16, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model