4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 35

Atlanta Falcons 31 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 3-M.Bryant 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.42 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model