Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(8:27) 8-A.Lee punts 56 yards to ATL 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-E.Weems to ATL 26 for 10 yards (52-J.Norris). PENALTY on ATL-34-B.Poole, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at ATL 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 72, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model