Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 74

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 8-A.Lee punts 53 yards to ATL 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-E.Weems pushed ob at ATL 39 for 18 yards (14-J.Webb). PENALTY on ATL-16-J.Hardy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 39.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.00 EP
52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 74, worth -4.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model