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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 56

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(:19) 8-A.Lee punts 54 yards to ATL 2, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-27-R.McClain.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.09 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 56, worth -1.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model