Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 74

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Carolina Panthers 10

(1:53) 5-M.Bosher punts 56 yards to CAR 18, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 26 for 8 yards (47-J.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model