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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 36

Carolina Panthers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 9-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.58 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP