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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 43

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(12:25) 8-A.Lee punts 42 yards to ATL 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-27-R.McClain.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.75 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT +0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth +0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model