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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 79

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to BUF 32, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.39 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 79, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 36, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model