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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 27

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(3:25) (Shotgun) 28-J.White up the middle to BUF 25 for 2 yards (91-L.Douzable; 55-J.Hughes).

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.82 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 37, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model