Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 19 at the 71

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 16

(13:09) 6-R.Allen punts 56 yards to BUF 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.67 EP
74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 71, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model