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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 58

Buffalo Bills 13 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to NE 15, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola to NE 20 for 5 yards (57-L.Alexander; 65-G.Sanborn).

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.65 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 58, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP