4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 71

Seattle Seahawks 14 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(:23) 9-J.Ryan punts 57 yards to SF 14, Center-48-N.Frese. 17-J.Kerley pushed ob at SF 34 for 20 yards (33-K.McCray).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP