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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 17

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 37

What Actually Happened

(9:32) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert scrambles left end ran ob at SEA 12 for 5 yards (35-D.Shead).

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.09 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 17, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT +0.40 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model