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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 14

Seattle Seahawks 24 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.24 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP