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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 53

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to SEA 12, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SF 26 for 62 yards (13-A.Burbridge).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.75 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 53, worth -3.06 EP
KICK -1.93 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model