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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 86

Seattle Seahawks 24 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to SF 41, Center-48-N.Frese, downed by SEA-91-C.Marsh.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.96 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 86, worth -4.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 44, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model