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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 57

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to SEA 9, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.35 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 57, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP