4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 77

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(:53) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to SEA 32, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 26 for -6 yards (86-K.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.15 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 77, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 34, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model