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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 4

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 4-P.Dawson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.08 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 4, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP