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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 49

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(13:48) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to SEA 8, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.74 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model