Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 71

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 8-D.Kaser punts 46 yards to IND 25, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray. PENALTY on IND-44-A.Morrison, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.16 EP
54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model