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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 45

Indianapolis Colts 26 – Los Angeles Chargers 22

What Actually Happened

(:07) 1-P.McAfee punts 27 yards to LAC 18, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-84-J.Doyle. First touch violation. Chargers can extend the period for one play.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +1.12 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EP