Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 80

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 22

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 13-T.Hilton to IND 28 for 8 yards (24-B.Flowers). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

What Happened

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.99 EP
62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 80, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.48 EP